Ottawa has just one win and one draw to its three losses, but opened its season with four straight road matches. Fury looked much improved in front of a 7,000-plus strong crowd at TD Place, and dispatched the Miami FC 2-0 last week. Due to a large amount of roster turnover, Ottawa now features a more attack-minded team under the command of manager Paul Dalglish than it did in 2015 when it bested Minnesota in the postseason.
While getting revenge for last season’s semifinals defeat will surely be on the mind of many Loons, the rebuilt Fury offer a much different challenge than the side that lead the NASL in fewest goals conceded in 2015. Simply looking at Fury’s current position in the league table may lead some to underestimate Ottawa, but the Loons will need to keep their good form going if they want to secure a victory and retain control of their own destiny in the race for the Spring Season title.
Previous Meetings
Minnesota owns a 4-1-2 record in the all-time series with Ottawa. The Loons have played a majority of those meetings in Canada, and boast a 3-1-2 road record against Fury. While that historical advantage is nice, last season’s semifinals defeat still lingers in the memories of Minnesota’s players and fans.
Officials
Referee Pierre-Luc Lauziere will officiate his first NASL match of the season, and first-ever Loons match. He will be flanked by assistants Peter Pendli and Andrew Pickler, with Pierre Acouri handling fourth official duties.
Roster Report
Aside from the disappointing news that dynamic midfielder Greg Jordan is sidelined indefinitely with a knee injury, Carl Craig has an otherwise fit roster from which to select his starting eleven and fill his bench.
Statistical Notes
by Dave Laidig
Carolina fell for the first time this Spring at New York; creating an opportunity for Minnesota to make up some ground. But even with Carolina’s loss and a game in hand, models still expect Minnesota to fall 3 points shorts of the RailHawks by the end of the Spring Season.
In the next match, Ottawa is assigned a 57-percent chance of winning, with Minnesota only at 14-percent for a win. But Minnesota is favored for each its remaining matches. As a result, the upcoming fixture at Ottawa represents the best chance for Minnesota to “gain ground” in the models and stake a claim to the Spring Championship.
It’s worth noting that Ottawa’s poor table position is misleading. Of the five games played so far, four have been on the road. Their first home win was last weekend against the expansion Miami FC. Even though they played Miami, Ottawa chalked up an impressive win by keeping Miami to an NASL season-low three shots, with zero shots on goal.
And even with the loss of 2015 talisman Tom Heinemann, Ottawa still hasn’t lost the ability to launch a significant volume of shots. Their 55 shots are near the top in the NASL. Ottawa’s most accurate attacker is Paulo Junior, who gets 30-percent more shots on goal than an average player would from the same shot locations. Junior prefers to shoot from the center of the pitch, even if outside the box, and in his current form is due to score.
Ottawa: Last Time Out
Playing their first home game of the season, Fury recorded a 2-0 victory over expansion side Miami. Paul Dalglish lined up his charges in his preferred 4-3-3.
Romuald Peiser employed his considerable skill as both a goal keeper and less-convincing skill as actor in the match, with both disciplines familiar features of the Frenchman’s game.
In front of Peiser, the right side of Fury’s back four featured a pair of familiar faces with Rich Balchan and Rafael Alves slotting in at centerback and rightback, respectively—the duo not part of Ottawa’s mass exodus over the offseason. Fernando Timbó, who played for Dalglish with the Austin Aztex last season, partnered Alves in the middle, while Englishman Onua Thomas Obasi was Fury’s leftback.
In midfield, Lance Rozeboom served as the holding midfielder, tasked with shielding Ottawa’s back line. Englishman James Bailey served as the true central midfielder, and former Loon Jonny Steele operated as the attacking point of the midfield triangle.
Steele—who’s stay in Minnesota ended prematurely and did not go as either the team or player planned—is currently in the type of form the Loons had hoped to see when signing the attacking midfielder prior to last season.
As for the front three, Fury’s best player Paulo Junior occupied the right wing. Junior covered a fair bit of ground against Miami and tended to drop much deeper than his counterpart on the left wing, Carl Haworth.
Interestingly, Haworth had started at center forward the previous week in Ottawa’s loss at Edmonton, with Israeli Idan Vered playing on the left wing. Dalglish opted to swap the pair against Miami. Both took a similar approach to the match and tended to stay high up the pitch.
In the second half, Daglish made three like-for-like subs, replacing Vered with Dennis Chin up top, Haworth with former Minnesota player Mozzi Gyorio, and Steele with the more defensively capable Mauro Eustáquio.
The Matchup
Saturday presents Minnesota with an opportunity to control the match via a high press. Among Ottawa’s back four, Balchan had the most success passing out of the back. This was due in large part to a good partnership with Paulo Junior, who frequently dropped deep to receive short passes from his rightback.
With Haworth on the left wing playing high up—often level with Vered—Obasi found things more difficult. Taking a look at his passes, along with those of centerbacks Alves and Timbó, a stark pattern emerges.
The trio had a lot of difficultly completing forward passes, especially when forced to play the ball long out of their own defensive third. If the Loons can cut off passing lanes to Paulo Junior and the two-man base of Fury’s midfield triangle, Ottawa will likely struggle to maintain possession.
Ottawa’s attack ran through Paulo Junior on the right and Steele, who played both through the middle, and drifted wide left to link play with Obasi once Fury had worked the ball past midfield. Kallman and Calvano should be up to the task of neutralizing Heyworth and Vered. If Jeb Brovsky and whomever partners him in the center of midfield can contain Steele, and whichever of Venegas or Davis draws the assignment of marking Paulo Junior can keep Fury’s dangerman in check, Minnesota should have the run of play.
In attack, Minnesota has more than enough firepower to break down Ottawa’s defense. It just needs to be smart about doing so. Despite a number of departures and arrivals, Fury are still quite strong in the air. The Loons have attempted a good number of crosses in recent weeks but may find more success playing the ball through Fury’s lines on the ground. Hopefully Ben Speas—and whichever of Ibson or Juliano Vicentini starts as the Loons’ number eight—can provide the craft needed to unlock Fury’s defense.
All in all, this is the sort of match Minnesota needs to win if it wants to distance itself from Carolina and New York as the NASL’s best team. It is just a trickier matchup than a meeting between the number two and nine teams in the standings would suggest. There is a very real danger, playing in front of a raucous home crowd, that Fury capture a point or three.
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