Alex Schieferdecker has been ranking NASL teams all season in his unparalleled Power Rankings series. This week, he traded the column along with future considerations to Jeff Rueter in exchange for the Montreal Impact Designated Report along with Writers’ Allocation Money. Per 55.1 Policy, WAM amounts are undisclosed.
***
I can see why Alex abandoned this column for Mexico after this past weekend’s matches.
The two most-likely teams to earn the fourth playoff spot clashed to a draw that was as exciting as it was dull (which is really hard to achieve). The seventh and eighth seeds also battled to a draw, the top two teams in the league won, and the team that clinched a first-round home match lost against a top-foe.
Oh yeah: Minnesota lost again, too.
With our resident Dutchman enjoying the fantastically-reviewed hostel in Querétaro, I’ll take a different approach to my one crack at the Power Rankings.
https://twitter.com/alexschief/status/782052732039532544
Wes Burdine put together a quick look at the stability of each NASL club heading into 2017. Focusing as much on the on-the-field product, I’ll rate the clubs as ‘Stock Up’ or ‘Stock Down’ compared to where I thought they would be going into the 2016 season.
#1. New York Cosmos – (17-4-7, 55 pts) – No Change
On-Field: Stock Up
I’ll admit it: I slept on the Cosmos this season.
When Raul and Marcos Senna retired during the off-season, the club countered by signing Niko Kranjčar, a player whose reputation is markedly larger than his on-field prowess dictates. After ten matches where he made $250,000, Kranjčar bolted for Scotland and the Cosmos mostly stood pat without replacing his star-power. The club has been the better for it and their budget has gotten closer to the rest of the league after being the giants of the NASL for their first few seasons.
Off-Field: Stock Down
Based on this powerful data, close to stock-neutral, but attendance figures have been appalling and there’s no stadium resolution in sight. The downfall to not replacing Raul/Senna/Kranjčar is that there isn’t a player who truly is “must-see” to global soccer neutrals in New York. Like them or not, those three players were marquee attractions and while Juan Arango is a fantastic player, he doesn’t have the following that Andrea Pirlo, Frank Lampard, and David Villa have across the Apple. This rating isn’t to say that they’re close to folding; just that they aren’t the be-all, end-all of the league anymore.
#2. FC Edmonton – (13-8-6, 47 pts) – Up One
On-Field: Stock Up
After losing Lance Laing, many (including myself) thought that Edmonton would take a step back or remain neutral, meaning that they’d be in the mix for the fourth seed and miss out during the month of October. Instead, the club has been one of the toughest teams to play this year, making up for a paltry 22 goals scored by only allowing 16. The play of the backline and Matt VanOekel has been unmatched in the young league’s history and, as they proved this week against Indy, they don’t back down from any opponent.
Off-Field: Stock Up
Of the clubs that aren’t headed to MLS next year, there are few that are better situated for the future than FC Edmonton. They have stable ownership, a solid core of players, a developing youth system, and a respectable brand. The attendance figures are lagging behind and there’s vague uncertainty about their future in the league with the potential for a Canadian Premier League in 2018, but FCE isn’t going anywhere.
#3. Indy Eleven – (12-9-6, 45 pts) – Down One
On-Field: Stock Up
Indy winning the Spring Title wasn’t the surprise of the season; the fact that they’ve backed it up with an equally-respectable Fall is.
That’s no discredit to Tim Hankinson’s men, either. The Eleven could have very understandably coasted through the Fall until October with a home game already clinched thanks to the NASL’s unbalanced schedule. Instead, Eamon Zayed & Co. have continued to grind their way through the season, still in the mix for a legitimate top-two finish in the combined table.
Off-Field: Stock Up
In turn, Indy is one of the most stable (buzz word!) clubs in the league. They’re like the soccer version of Ocean’s Eleven. Maybe a little less beauty, but using a true ensemble effort and led by a couple of veterans to the game (Clooney, Damon, Pitt; Zayed, Ubiparapovic, Busch), they’re able to overcome the richer giants of their respective realms. The fans believe in them, ownership knows what they’re doing, and you just know they’re going to get the job done.
(Also: the Brickyard Battalion is reeeeeally lucky that Indy will host Edmonton in the first round.)
#4. Miami FC – (9-9-9, 36 pts) – Up One
On-Field: $tock Up
It’$ unbelievable ju$t how much progre$$ Miami FC ha$ made thi$ Fall. After a lack-luster Spring where they finished behind every club in the league (including The Tony Meola Experience), the club bought fought their way into postseason contention. Their win against Ottawa and draw on the road against Tampa Bay have put them even on points with Minnesota and Tampa Bay for the fourth seed, though they have a three-goal and one-goal deficit behind the respective clubs. Either way, they’ve made massive strides this fall.
Off-Field: Stock ???
This is one big fat question mark. In theory, the club couldn’t be at a higher trajectory, having broken continental transfer records, offering massive pay-raises for veterans, and showing that their on-field results can match their ambitions. All of that said: David Beckham is still planning on launching an MLS club in The Magic City, and it’s tough to see the free-spending NASL side sustaining a club with Beck’s backing. Along with that, attendance figures aren’t too encouraging as the club looks to be the pulse of South Floridian soccer. They’ll be a very interesting team to follow in 2017.
#5. Tampa Bay Rowdies – (9-9-8, 36 pts) – Down One
On-Field: Stock Down
Purely from a perspective of ability, there are few teams that can match this year’s Rowdies. However, the club is on track to miss the postseason for the third straight season. Considering they’ve always had a solid stable of talent at their disposal, missing the postseason is unacceptable. Flashy signings only go so far if you aren’t competing for the Soccer Bowl. Minnesota fans are collectively nodding their heads in agreement.
Off-Field: Stock Up
In every “Is the NASL on the Brink of Disaster? (The shocking secret Freddy Adu does NOT want you to see!)” piece that’s been floated over the last month, there are two organizations that have been linked as immediate fits for the USL: Ottawa (we’ll get there in a moment) and Tampa Bay. Say what you will about the relatively disappointing product on the pitch, the club has legs. Fans are bleeding green and yellow again and ownership has stabilized the Rowdies brand beyond compare. This iteration of the club is safe as they get.
#6. Minnesota United FC – (10-6-11, 36 pts) – no change
On-Field: Stock Down
Before the season, they were in the “Best NASL Club Ever?” discussion. Currently, they’ve lost more games than they’ve won. A mix of injuries have kept the club off-kilter from week one, and the players’ abilities don’t seem to mesh with the coaching staff’s desired game plan. For whatever reason, this final NASL season hasn’t followed the script, though that’s been the case for many clubs before joining MLS.
Off-Field: Stock Up
Looming large (literally) during the past two home defeats have been large banners, Word-Art photo ops, and voices reminding people to secure ticket deposits for next season. The future has never been brighter for Minnesota soccer (as long as that future begins after the post-season). Pure and simple.
#7. Carolina RailHawks – (9-7-11, 34 pts) – Up One
On-Field: Stock Down
Before the season, I pegged the RailHawks as the dark horse for the fourth seed. That may still happen, as they’re only two points behind United/Rowdies/FC for the last playoff spot. However, taking one point from a two-match week may have effectively knocked them out, especially considering their 15/13/12 goal deficit on the three listed clubs, respectively. Players like Naz Albadawi and Matt Watson have stood out, while solid performances from league vets like Tiyi Shipalane and Paul Black have stolen points for the club (not to mention the shrewd moves for Matt Fondy and Omar Bravo). Despite all of the positives individually, something seems to be lacking for the collective. With the talent on this club, that just isn’t good enough.
Off-Field: Stock Up
It isn’t all bad out in Cary, however. Steve Malik has quietly established himself as one of the most-respected owners in the league, balancing between doing what’s best for his community with any league commitments. While there are whispers that the club is considering heading to USL, the club is very solidly in the fold for the NASL next season. Either way, the RailHawks keep barreling down the tracks.
#8. Ottawa Fury – (7-8-13, 29 pts) – Up One
On-Field: Stock Down
You could make a compelling case that the club has outperformed their expectations after losing most of their core from the miracle run to the Championship last year. However, the club lost two matches this week and haven’t beaten an opponent whose name doesn’t rhyme with Schminnesota Schmunited since July 30. Compared with how they finished last season, it hasn’t been pretty for the Fury.
Off-Field: Stock Up
In their third season with the league, the Fury continue to build their brand in Canada and abroad. While ownership must be rooting hard for the CPL (and make no mistake: the club would be the crown jewel of that league if Edmonton wasn’t alongside them to share the title) and the USL is their rumored next destination, the Fury aren’t in any risk of folding after clearing the third-year hurdle.
#9. Rayo OKC – (7-11-9, 31 pts) – Up One
On-Field: Stock Down
For reasons $omewhat out of their control, OKC has been overshadowed by expansion-counterpart Miami FC in terms of results. They made some impressive moves on paper by signing World Cup veterans™ like Georgios Samaras and Derek Boateng, but in reality the most impressive players have been league nomads (namely Billy Forbes, Daniel Fernandes, and Kosuke Kimura). Eighth in the combined table may not be a bad slot for a new side, but this club had bigger aspirations.
Off-Field: Stock Down
A Spanish-owned club in a market with a respected USL side never seemed like a good idea, but the fallout from year one has been beyond anybody’s expectations. Worse yet, the club hasn’t come forward to own up to anything or outline how they’ll fix it like our next entry has. It’s tough to see this club staying in OKC for another season.
#10. Fort Lauderdale Strikers – (8-8-11, 32 pts) – Down One
On-Field: Stock Down
A two-loss week highlighted the woes that the Strikers have faced in recent months. After a respectable Spring and start to the Fall (not to mention making a run in the U.S. Open Cup), the Strikers have floundered down the stretch, having nearly confirmed their absence from the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Losing 2015’s best attackers (Stefano Pinho and PC) and replacing them with two players making $1 is a good way to sum their season up, actually.
Off-Field: Stock Down
When a team of us first broke the news about the Strikers’ financial woes, I had been assured that it “wasn’t a systemic issue” and all was resolved.
To borrow Luis Cuccatti’s words from that day: “Not really.”
To their credit, Cuccatti and Fort Lauderdale have identified a way to remedy their issues, focusing on the community after an ambitious year that saw them play in China and Brazil. The new facilities at Central Broward are also a massive upgrade over Lockhart. Still, no club’s stock has taken a greater dive over the course of 2016 than Fort Lauderdale’s. We’re firmly in the “show, don’t tell” stage of their recovery.
#11. Puerto Rico FC – (4-8-6, 20 pts) – No Change
On-Field: Stock Up
Joining a league after every team has played ten games is tough. Joining a league when your owner is in Rio playing Olympic basketball is tougher. Joining a league and nearly catching up to an established club in terms of points? That’s nothing to sneeze at. PRFC plays a gritty style of play that capitalizes on the physical size of their players, having knocked off their last three opponents as they head to the conclusion of their first year.
Off-Field: Stock Up
While none of the three expansion sides seemed like a surefire success out of the gates (Miami for market saturation; OKC for ownership and location), Puerto Rico had a passionate fanbase behind them from the start and are drawing a respectable near-4,000 per match. Looking to 2017, there is no reason to think that Carmelo Anthony will pull the plug on PRFC.
#12. Jacksonville Armada – (4-11-12, 19 pts) – No Change
On-Field: Stock Down
Hoo boy. While 2015 wasn’t a knockout first season, the Armada were a plucky bunch that performed well at home no matter the opponent. This year, they’ve won just twice at the friendly confines of EverBank Field Community First Park, drawing 7 of their 12 matches thus far. They haven’t lost in their last four matches, and there’s still talent on the roster (especially along the backline) to have optimism in their core for next season. One other positive: their midseason coaching switch from Meola to Mark Lowry has been encouraging. It’d be great to see him stick around next year.
Off-Field: Stock Up
Jacksonville has one of the most well-run organizations from top to bottom in the NASL. Owner (and Chairman of the NASL Board of Governors) Mark Frisch is running a tight ship, giving every reason to believe that Jacksonville is trending closer to Tampa Bay than Fort Lauderdale in terms of stability in Florida. With the foundation firmly established, it’ll be crucial to provide an on-field product to match that level before fans get discouraged.
***
Leave a Reply