FiftyFive.One

This week, we’ll be taking a look at who Minnesota might take in the upcoming MLS Expansion Draft. The Loons will get five selections of players left unprotected by the other twenty teams in the league. Atlanta will also get five selections, and they have the first pick.

We will be looking at the draft position by position. Previously, Alex Schieferdecker looked at defenders; Wes Burdine scouted the goalkeepers; and Jake Rueter dove into the midfield pool. Prior to this series, four 55.1 writers made lists of the players on every team that we’d protect if we were that team. Looking at our selections in aggregate should give a good sense of which players are likely to be available.

Looking back at previous expansion drafts, there’s been a disproportionally high number of forwards selected. New York City and Orlando City combined to use 7 of their 20 picks on forwards in 2014. The Montreal Impact used 3 or their 10 selections on forwards in 2011. Portland and Vancouver combined for 6 in the 2010 installment.

Minnesota United, however, has the luxury of the 1st pick in January’s SuperDraft to consider. The consensus top player available is Jeremy Ebobisse, a 19-year-old US youth international striker with USL experience with an impressive skill set.

Top #MLS SuperDraft prospect J. Ebobisse was with #MNUFC all week. Could hold off CBs, sharp finisher, able to create his own shots. (1/2)

— Jeff Rueter (@jeffrueter) October 28, 2016

One #MNUFC player with #MLS experience compared Ebobisse to "Cyle Larin with a higher attacking work rate. Still room to grow." (2/2)

— Jeff Rueter (@jeffrueter) October 28, 2016

Ebobisse is a player who is capable of starting 30-plus matches in his first season. United head coach Adrian Heath has shown a willingness to trust young strikers with playing time, letting Cyle Larin take his lumps early in the season. Larin rewarded Heath with 17 goals (an MLS rookie record); there’s reason to believe that, if drafted, Ebobisse could see double-digits as well.

This isn’t even considering a potential return for Christian Ramirez, the two-time NASL Golden Boot winner who’s netted 50 goals in 3 seasons. Minnesota may already have two starting-caliber strikers on deck in theory; this is the least-important area of focus for the Loons going into the expansion draft. That doesn’t even consider the pool of talent that may be available.

Spoiler alert: it isn’t pretty.

Likely Unprotected:

Listed below, in team alphabetical order, are the defenders who were not protected by any of our writers. Bolded players are on my list of targets:

Luis Solignac (CHI), Cedrick Mabwati (CLB), Sébastien Le Toux (COL), Caleb Calvert (COL), Conor Doyle (COL), Miguel Aguilar (DC), Kennedy Igboananike [Designated Player] (DC), Colin Bonner (FCD), Carlos Ruiz (FCD), Rob Lovejoy (HOU), Alan Gordon (LAG), Ariel Lassiter (LAG), Mike Magee (LAG), Michael Salazar (MTL), Teal Bunbury (NE), Tony Taylor (NYC), Anatole Abang (RBNY), Hadji Barry (ORL), Pedro Ribeiro (ORL), Bryan Rochez [Designated Player] (ORL), Charlie Davies (PHI), Ben Polk (POR), Neco Brett (POR), Emery Welshman (RSL), Devon Sandoval (RSL), Henok Goitom (SJ), Innocent Emeghara [Designated Player] (SJ), Mark Sherrod (SJ), Chad Barrett (SJ), Steven Lenhart (SJ), Quincy Amarikwa (SJ), Leandro Barrera (SJ), Herculez Gomez (SEA), Nelson Valdez [Designated Player] (SEA), Oalex Anderson (SEA), Jacob Peterson (SKC), Cameron Porter (SKC), Tsubasa Endoh (TOR), Erik Hurtado (VAN), Blas Perez (VAN)

Possibly Unprotected:

Listed below, in team alphabetical order, are the forwards who were protected by only one or two of our writers. Bolded players are on my list of targets:

Alhaji Kamara (DC), Maximiliano Urruti (FCD), Tesho Akindele (FCD), Erick ‘Cubo’ Torres [Designated Player] (HOU), Jose Villarreal (LAG), Andres Romero (MTL), Dom Oduro (MTL), Lucas Melano [Designated Player] (POR), Jack McInerney (POR), Tosaint Ricketts (TOR), Giles Barnes (VAN)

If you feel underwhelmed by those lists, you aren’t alone. Looking at this list of targets, you can see why it might be a bad idea to use more than one pick on a forward.

Teal Bunbury, 26, New England Revolution

Mike Magee, 32, Los Angeles Galaxy
Charlie Davies, 30, Philadelphia Union
Quincy Amarikwa, 29, San Jose Earthquakes

If both Ebobisse and Ramirez are on United’s MLS roster in 2017, they’ll progress best if they’re the two leading minute-earners in the forward pool.

This is a trio of players who are solid, non-flashy MLS goal scorers. There’s nothing wrong with using a pick on any of them (though, Magee and Davies have some injury baggage attached). Magee won MLS MVP in 2013 after scoring 21 goals and adding 4 assists for the Chicago Fire. After missing most of the next couple years with injuries, he rebuilt his stock by returning to the Galaxy as a free agent. Amarikwa is good for a stretch of 5 goals in 6 games every season, but is incredibly streaking as a finisher more often than not. Davies has come back from a non-football injury that derailed his USMNT career in 2009 to be a respectable piece of any attack.

All of this said: if both Ebobisse and Ramirez are on United’s MLS roster in 2017, they’ll progress best if they’re the two leading minute-earners in the forward pool. All three would be good second-strikers for a team, but tend to be streaky scorers if they don’t get regular minutes. I’d prioritize Ebo and CR over all of these three.

Oalex Anderson, 21, Seattle Sounders

The Saint Vincent and the Grenadines international offers blistering pace, and has earned the nickname ‘Bounty’ from fans for his goal-scoring ability. He made his debut with Seattle this season, featuring in 14 regular season matches in a mostly-substitute role. The issue with drafting Anderson is the same one that’s listed above: if Ebobisse and Ramirez also need regular minutes to flourish, bringing in a third young forward might be counter-intuitive. That said, it would give Heath an opportunity to play the hot hand(s), and there’s a chance that Anderson has as high an upside as Ramirez.

Cedrick Mabwati, 24, Columbus Crew
Tesho Akindele, 24, FC Dallas
Dom Oduro, 31, Montreal Impact
Tsubasa Endoh, 23, Toronto FC

All four of these guys are versatile members of a front line, able to be deployed on the wing confidently (though, Endoh profiles closest to a true striker of the four). Three of them are young enough where there’s upside, and the veteran Oduro has notable success in the league, currently serving as a crucial cog in Montreal’s attack.

“If you liked Miguel Ibarra for his versatility, tireless motor, and creativity, you’ll love Jose Villarreal.”

The biggest knock against them, however, are the expansion draft rules. Each MLS team can only lose one player in the draft (whether they’re selected by Minnesota or Atlanta). This means that Manny Lagos and Amos Magee aren’t just ranking the players positionally; they’ll have to compare their impact with potential teammates. Columbus offers some decent defensive players. FC Dallas has a lot of good pieces to choose from (most notably a potential shot at Victor Ulloa). Montreal has two solid midfielders in Harry Shipp and Calum Mallace who would do well in Minnesota. Toronto offers a bit of everything, boasting one of the deepest rosters in MLS. All things considered, these are four talented players in positions that Minnesota may not need to address as sorely as areas further back on the pitch.

Bryan Rochez, 21, Orlando City SC

The Honduran Designated Player wasn’t able to see much of the field in 2016, spending 10 matches on loan with Orlando City B before returning to his first club (Real España) for the rest of the year. His guaranteed salary is below $250k, and a simple restructure would remove his DP moniker.

When Rochez was signed by Orlando, Heath said he was “extremely delighted” about signing the young forward, calling him “a player that we’ve had our eyes on for quite some time.” We’ll see if he still holds that level of esteem after two years together.

Jose Villarreal, 23, Los Angeles Galaxy

At the outset, acquiring the US youth international for free may seem like daylight robbery. Looking deeper, it might be a realistic possibility.

The versatile forward can play at striker, on the wing, or as a #10. After debuting for the Galaxy in 2012, he’s actually seen his playing time decrease in recent years. He was even moved to Cruz Azul for a year in 2014, with the Mexican side holding a purchase option, which they declined to activate. He played a career-low 3 matches in 2016, and a healthy Villarreal wasn’t considered to replace the injured Gyasi Zardes this fall. Instead, the Galaxy preferred Landon Donovan, fresh off of 20 months of retirement.

As they say, one man’s trash is another’s treasure. If you liked Miguel Ibarra for his versatility, tireless motor, and creativity, you’ll love Jose Villarreal. Here’s hoping you can fall in love with him in a United jersey in 2017.

Mock Draft:

After selecting protected players, all of our participating writers made lists of who they’d take in the draft. Comparing my list to those of other writers and considering the rules of the draft (a team can only lose one player), here’s how my mock draft came out:

1. Jose Villarreal (FW, LA)
2. Nick Hagglund (CB, TFC)
3. Kevin Ellis (CB, SKC)
4. Ryan Meara (GK, RBNY)
5. Ray Gaddis (RB, PHL)