No May games can be considered crucial playoff games. However, Sunday’s matchup between the Loons and the Galaxy features two teams, tied on eleven points, just on the wrong side of the red line in the Western Conference. This is a game that matters, and it is a great temperature check for both teams. Has Los Angeles really dipped this low, and can Minnesota really reach this high?
Recent form
| Minnesota | L | W | L | W | D | -11 GD |
1.0 PPG |
| Los Angeles | W | D | D | L | L | -3 GD |
1.1 PPG |
Previous meetings
This will be the two teams’ first time squaring off in MLS. However, the Galaxy did face the then-Minnesota Thunder in that magical 2005 U.S. Open Cup run (Minnesota tore so many MLS clubs asunder that year that it has made repeated mention in this column). The Galaxy was the team to finally shut down the Thunder’s remarkable tournament with a 5-2 win over the USL1 side. Herculez Gomez scored a brace that day. Most importantly, that match was also the very last game for head coach and Minnesota soccer godfather Buzz Lagos, cementing it as a special moment in the hearts and memories of local fans.
Community match ratings
Using FiftyFive.One’s community match ratings polls we will take a look at who’s hot, who’s not, and who needs to get a look.
Who’s up?
| Player | 3-game avg. rating (minimum 80 minutes) |
| Francisco Calvo | 7.2 |
| Bobby Shuttleworth | 7.1 |
| Miguel Ibarra | 6.7 |
Who’s down?
| Player | 3-game avg. rating (minimum 80 minutes) |
| Johan Venegas | 4.2 |
| Marc Burch | 6.0 |
| Christian Ramirez | 6.0 |
Atop the community match ratings we have the same three players as the previous week, though with averages dipping after the loss to Toronto. Francisco Calvo is enjoying his most consistent spell in gray and blue over the last month and is hard to beat one-on-one. The three goals Toronto sailed past Shuttleworth won’t do his goals against average any favors, but the keeper played bravely and one wonders whether he will need a bit of time to recover from his broken nose and subsequent surgery. Miguel Ibarra, though quieter this past week, continues to be considered a winger you count on to play well from one end line to the other.
The lesser end of the spectrum has more change to it. Johan Venegas continues a slump in form that has stretched several weeks, and losing his starting role to rookie Abu Danladi appears not to have been great for the Costa Rican’s confidence. Marc Burch and Christian Ramirez round out the bottom of the players getting meaningful minutes after neither was able to put their stamp on the game against the Reds.
Officials
| Referee | Chris Penso |
| Assistant | Jeff Muschik |
| Assistant | Oscar Mitchell-Carvalho |
| Fourth | Fotis Bazakos |
Minnesota faithful will recognize referee Chris Penso as the man who officiated their first MLS match against Portland. That game (which included a penalty dealt after a Vadim Demidov foul) underscored Penso’s no-nonsense approach to calling the game, and his numbers tell the same story. Penso is tied for fifth among referees this year in yellows awarded, and is tied for second for most cards given for dissent. A war of words may not be in anyone’s best interest on Sunday. Also of note is Fotis Bazakos, who will be occupying the fourth official role for the second time this season at a home United match.
Roster report
Minnesota United
M Bernardo Añor (hamstring injury) – Out
D Thomas de Villardi (left Achilles) – Out
Los Angeles Galaxy
D Robbie Rogers (ankle injury) – Out
M Sebastian Lletget (foot surgery) – Out
GK Clement Diop (hip injury) – Out
M Jermaine Jones (MCL sprain) – Out
Tactical outlook
Well, playing Danladi on the wing was a fun experiment. There is no doubt that Toronto FC – backups or otherwise — can be a tall task for anyone. That said, a glance at his pass chart suggests he really did not have an impact on the match:
Green is a successful pass or cross, red is an unsuccessful pass or cross, and blue is an assist. What stands out first is that for a player with 78 minutes in this game, he sure didn’t do much with the ball. The few times he did play the ball, they were consistently conservative backward passes. His forward passes were desperate, seeking long balls that never found their target. Might the issue have been that he was doing more with the ball at his feet? He had zero completed dribbles in the match. Might he have been working defensively, given United’s approach to ceding possession to Toronto? He had five recoveries and one successful tackle, which was sadly the tackle in which he conceded a penalty. In short, this particular experiment was unsuccessful.
But fortunately United can always count on Ibarra to provide end-to-end consistency on both sides of the ball. Well:
The same story played out on the left side. Very few actions on the ball, almost all of them conservatively backward. Perhaps Ibarra was doing more defensively, then? The winger recorded a single defensive action, a clearance from outside his own 18 yard box. Of course there are defensive actions that are meaningful without being quantifiable, such as closing down ball carriers and applying pressure, but Toronto’s possession numbers, the final score line, and the evidence of one’s own eyes suggests the Reds were able to do with the ball what they wanted.
But this is to be expected against talented ball hogs like Toronto. Every player’s pass chart might look like this. Well:
These passes were authored by Ibson. Of immediate note is simply how many more passes Ibson is making and how much ground he is covering across the field. Some of this is inevitable because he is playing centrally, but the degree of difference compared to the wingers is immense. The second standout here is the direction of these passes. Ibson played less conservative passes that were vaguely forward and very inside out. Central midfielder Kevin Molino posted a very similar distribution chart: a touch line to touch line rats nest of inside out passes, with the only difference being the arsenal of Hail Mary crosses into the box that never hit their target.
So what does all of this mean, other than that Toronto is good and their five-man midfield is hard to figure out sometimes? One of the true high points watching the Loons play so far this year has been the beautiful interlacing passing that can be achieved when wingers cut in, inside forwards dart out, and full backs overlap. The fluidity of this buildup keeps defenses from being properly organized, and when United is passing quickly and crisply, there isn’t a team they can’t beat. However, in the charts above, the two wingers only completed three total actions outside of their own half of the field. Ibson and Molino needed to go way too far and try way too hard to find their men on the flanks.
Los Angeles will be playing with a makeshift back line that can be pushed on its heels a bit more easily. The Galaxy will not feature players like Jermaine Jones and Sebastian Lletget who make it tough to crack the midfield. They have some great talent in the attack like Gyasi Zardes and Romain Alessandrini, but hardly enough to think the Loons need to play conservatively. There is no reason United cannot return to an approach with more fluidity and bravado. They look better when they do, and they play better, too.
How will it play out?
Los Angeles may be on the verge of figuring it all out, if its 3-1 demolition of New York Red Bulls last week was any indication. Between their growing confidence and the tactics they’ve shown elsewhere throughout the season, the Galaxy are not likely to play bunker and counter on the road. They will come to play, and it should make for an open, lively, and possibly high scoring day across the board.
Los Angeles will win if…
The Galaxy have the offensive talent to put up a crooked number against anyone. Their opportunity will be in defense. If the team can isolate United’s wingers as well as Toronto did, whether that means through coverage or pressing the ball or other means, the Loons haven’t shown they have the strength of attack coming straight up the middle to compensate.
Minnesota will win if…
Head coach Adrian Heath needs to cut the shackles on his wingers and let them do what they do best: find the game. With fluidity and overlap, Minnesota could easily have some of the Galaxy defenders blushing by the end of the afternoon.
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