A lot has changed since these teams last met at TCF Bank stadium a month ago. A lot has stayed the same, too. Sporting Kansas City no longer look like the league toppers with an impenetrable defense they did after April, and their road form shows the club has some major weaknesses. What has not changed is that when Sporting plays anything but its preferred starting lineup, it tends to suffer for it. Saturday will feature numerous backups and squad players for both teams, meaning this is a crucial depth test for both sides and a perfectly unpredictable game.

Recent form

Kansas City	L	L	W	D	L	+6 GD	1.57 PPG
Minnesota	W	L	L	W	L	-11 GD	1.08 PPG

Previous meetings

These two clubs met in Minnesota on May 7th in their first ever MLS matchup. Sporting Kansas City played a largely backup defense due to a busy schedule and paid dearly for it. Two first half goals from Abu Danladi – his first goal as a professional – and Christian Ramirez sunk the visitors. Miguel Ibarra dished two assists and was named to MLS’ Team of the Week for his performance. This has been the only MLS feature between the two teams; however, their extensive U.S. Open Cup history is detailed in our previous match preview.

Officials

Referee	Jorge Gonzalez
Assistant	Jeff Hosking
Assistant	Danny Thornberry
Fourth	Allen Chapman

Jorge Gonzalez is working his first Minnesota United match this weekend and his fifth assignment in MLS this season. He currently ranks about average in terms of cautions and fouls this year, and has issued two red cards so far in 2017. Traditionally, Gonzalez has been in the upper half of the league in terms of yellow cards, but has fallen back due to the much higher number of cards being given this year than in 2016 across the league. 519 yellow cards had been shown this year before this week’s midweek games; extrapolating last year’s rate, one would have only expected to see 465. In other words, cautions are coming in heavy this year, but Gonzalez appears mostly to be his old self.

Roster report

Sporting Kansas City
M Roger Espinoza (suspended) – Out
D Matt Besler (international duty) – Out
D Erik Palmer-Brown (international duty) – Out
D Graham Zusi (international duty) – Out
D Kevin Ellis (quad strain) – Out
F Diego Rubio (ACL injury) – Out
F Dom Dwyer (knee injury) – Questionable

Minnesota United
M Sam Cronin (suspended) – Out
D Francisco Calvo (international duty) – Out
M Johan Venegas (international duty) – Out
F Abu Danladi (groin injury) – Out
M Bernardo Añor (hamstring injury) – Out
D Thomas de Villardi (left Achilles) – Out

Tactical outlook

This can’t have been what ESPN executives were dreaming of when they slotted this game on their flagship network. Sporting Kansas City, ostensibly the team with the name recognition and star power for the channel flipping audience, will be without their USMNT marquee players and may also be without Dom Dwyer. Minnesota will be missing key players and will be missing their first round draft pick Abu Danladi. The most interesting thing to watch Saturday may be how ESPN’s broadcasters attempt to cull storylines from this rotation-heavy match other than “Pardon The Interruption is on ESPN2 if you want to change the channel.”

The lineup shifts also make this game difficult to predict tactically. The Kansas City backline should have Ike Opara back Saturday, and will almost have to start Saad Abdul-Salaam at right back, Seth Sinovic at left back, and panic USL call-up Amer Didic at center back. Minnesota will hardly swoon looking at that roster.

However, for all the talk this year about Sporting’s terrific defense, it is worth noting that they do not play exclusively defensively. It is true that they do not score a ton of goals (only sixteen goals in fourteen games), but they have a mind to play offensively by pushing right back Graham Zusi upfield (he is tied for the team lead in assists). The triumvirate of Benny Feilhaber, Gerso Fernandes, and Dwyer in attack can disrupt any defense, especially one with a backup center back and defensive midfielder. Finally, the tale of Kansas City’s poor offense really only holds true when they play on the road, where they have a meager three goals.

This all suggests that playing at home, and with more players missing in its defense than its offense, Sporting will likely come out on its front foot and play high pressure offense. A tight press at all points of the field is a hallmark of coach Peter Vermes’ style, and keeping the ball at the feet of their offense may be the best way to mitigate any issues from its defense.

Minnesota, despite playing on the road, may come out with the same mentality. Letting the ball linger in its defensive area and then playing for the counter puts far too much pressure on a still-not-great defense that will be missing key contributors. Attempting to break the close and physical marking of Kansas City and enjoy more possession may do more for the goals allowed column than parking the bus.

How will it play out?

Two teams whose best defense will be a good offense, playing against sides with holes in their back lines? This match could turn into a slugfest that, if not beautiful, should at least be entertaining.

Kansas City will win if…

Sporting needs only to keep the ball away from Minnesota, and dominating possession at home is not terribly hard to do. Minnesota can punish teams with its offense, but will be relying on players like Jermaine Taylor and Collen Warner – men of a Minnesota United era best forgotten – to keep Bobby Shuttleworth from having to dig the ball out of the net too many times. Dominate possession, and Kansas City should have the chances it needs.

Minnesota will win if…

Would it be cheating to write “do the opposite of what I just wrote above”? It would? Then let me say that they should still do that, with one additional thought. Ibson has been playing out of his mind on both offense and defense lately, and Sporting Kansas City does not have an obvious defensive midfielder to keep Ibson occupied. Watch to see if Ibson, for even just one game, transforms into a No. 10 by playing in a more advanced position and being the chief set-up man given the space he may enjoy and the relatively limited attacking depth on the Loons’ squad.

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