It’s times like this that I think I owe readers (all five of you) a brief explanation of my perspective. I generally believe (in more than just sports) that three things influence results: fundamentals, systems, and luck. Fundamentals are simple—some rosters are better than others, some coaches are more prepared than others. Systems are more complicated—which teams are better organized, which teams are better prepared, which teams think faster tactically, which teams are better led. Luck, of course is luck.
The more I write these rankings, the clearer sense I get of what I’m actually writing about. I think that the fundamentals are more or less obvious, and that luck is self-evident. But it takes a while to figure out what systems are working, and how they’re working. When I write these rankings, I’m trying to understand the various systems in play. Over the course of the season (not a huge sample, but the best we have), luck will even out, and fundamentals will assert themselves, but the ultimate results depend on how the teams that define each team play out.
I write this to remind myself, in weeks like these past two, that the best view is the long view. Minnesota had a horrible performance, but we should expect, from time to time, the Loons to play poorly in the course of random variation. In the long run, however, they will play poorly less than other teams, and that’s why I have them ranked highly. This past week, we saw a number of teams who struggled early in the year put important wins on the board. Some of these teams appear to be on real hot streaks. But not all of these teams will remain good. Figuring out which teams will regress, and which are seeing the benefit of a good system is my challenge this week.
I’ll leave it at that. If you read that, congratulations. Let’s go to the ranking.
#1. Minnesota United FC – (4-1-2, 13 pts) – No Change
It was a calamitous week for the Loons, who barely still control their own destiny in the spring after a 2-4 loss to Indy. Instead of putting the Eleven away, Minnesota let them right into the race for the title. Instead of distancing themselves from Edmonton, Minnesota allowed them to pass. So too for the Cosmos. Before this past weekend, United had given themselves a margin for error, and they used all of it up. In one match, Minnesota conceded as many goals as they had in the previous six games. They were awful goals to concede: lots of small errors, a lack of hustle, and clinical finishing from tight angles by the hosts. This was the first time the Loons had allowed four goals since November 2nd, 2013. It was bad.
Last week I wrote about the issues that New York have had on the road. This week, it’s become clear that Minnesota has those same problems. The Loons have been dominant at home, winning three matches by an overall 5-0 scoreline. But away, they’ve won just once, tied once, and lost twice, with an overall 7-8 scoreline.
The good news for United is that of their three remaining matches, two are at home. That gives them an edge over Indy (two away, one at home), Edmonton (one away, one at home), and New York (ditto). But the bad news is that Minnesota’s remaining road trip is to Rayo OKC, where the field is turf. It’s been clear in both Ottawa and Indy that the Loons really struggle on artificial surfaces. Twice, goalkeeper Sammy Ndjock has made errors in judging balls of the turf that have led to goals. Overall, the team simply doesn’t look comfortable passing the ball the way they do in Blaine. That alone is hardly predictive. Minnesota has won away on Edmonton’s turf and nearly won on Ottawa’s. But sessions in the NSC’s fieldhouse are clearly in order before the trip to Rayo, and before heading to St. Louis for the Open Cup. Oh, and if Ben Speas doesn’t recover from injury before the end of the spring, that’s trouble.
All remaining matches for all remaining contenders are must-wins. Minnesota host Tampa Bay this next weekend.
#2. New York Cosmos – (5-0-3, 15 pts) – No Change
The Cosmos lead the league through eight weeks, though they have played the maximum amount of games. On ,Sunday night, the green and white defeated the Tampa Bay Rowdies at home 2-1. But these three points come with an asterisk, as the Rowdies actually scored an equalizer that was wrongly ruled out by an incorrect offside call.
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New York had nervy moments all game, and they did not look their best. They were cut open on the first goal (bad mistake from Jimmy Maurer to come out for the ball, had he stayed home, Tampa would likely not have scored), and had several other moments of panic in the back, including on the game’s final action. By their usual standards, this is a weakness. They have a good NASL defense, but not a good New York Cosmos defense.
Most concerning for Cosmos fans ought to be the fact that this match occurred at home. The green and white have been brilliant in Hempsted this year, but Sunday night was not one of those times. Three points are three points, but losing Niko Kranjčar to an injury (let’s see if it keeps him out) and generally not playing so well ought to give everyone pause.
New York host Rayo OKC next, which should be another win, but after Sunday, watch to see if the Cosmos can regain their dominance at home.
#3. Indy Eleven – (3-4-0, 13 pts) – Up Two
I’ve dogged Indy all season on the weakness of their unbeaten record. With two last-gasp results, and a narrow escape last weekend in Fort Lauderdale, I still don’t quite buy the Eleven as true contenders in the long haul.
But after Indy’s impressive defeat of Minnesota on Saturday, it’s clear they’re due for greater credit. This is a resilient team. They do not give up. After going ahead 2-0, the Eleven saw their lead erased by a furious Loons counterpunch. To the extent that momentum is a thing in soccer, it was all with Minnesota. But the hosts regrouped and hit back, scoring twice to secure three absolutely critical points. Now, through eight weeks and seven games, the Eleven are tied with Minnesota on points and just a goal behind in differential. Both those two teams have the highest possible points total, 22, in the league, and thus have the most control over their destinies for the spring season. Three weeks remain, and it’s all possible.
To complete their improbable run, Indy must keep playing as they did against Minnesota. Compact at the back, opportunistic and fast in attack. And they will have to do it twice on the road. Indy play Jacksonville, Louisville (in the Open Cup), and Miami all on the road in a week that starts next Saturday. If you could pick any opponents to play on the road, you would pick those two, who are In absolute dire straits right now. Even better, their home match (and final engagement of the spring) is against the RailHawks, who don’t look so hot either.
Indy’s results have been difficult to predict this season. Two of their wins have come against the top two teams on this ranking. But they’ve struggled to beat everyone else. If their results become predictable, they could win the spring. But the one safe prediction might be that they’ll remain difficult to pin down.
#4. FC Edmonton – (4-2-2, 14 pts) – Up Two
After failing to score in their first three matches, losing two of them, Edmonton have been on a true tear ever since, winning four of five in the league. Amazingly, this stretch has come in a period of six matches in nineteen days. Tired legs haven’t meant defeats, which might be the most impressive part of it all. And yes, they crashed out of the Canadian Championship, but their 0-3 loss was dealt with last week. This week, we can focus on their 2-0 win in Ottawa, which wasn’t enough to advance, but was an impressive rejoinder all the same.
Edmonton don’t look especially good, but they do look effective. Against Carolina on Sunday afternoon, all the Eddies needed was a penalty to overcome the RailHawks. After this week, Colin Miller’s men now own the league’s best defensive record. Papé Diakité has gotten much of the plaudits, and rightly so, but Matt Van Oekel has been the league’s best goalkeeper (if you forget about his footwork miscues, one of which may have cost Edmonton advancement in the Canadian Championship), and Albert Watson has been absolutely crucial. In the still-weak attack, Dustin Correa has been a bright spot.
The Eddies probably won’t win the spring: they’re behind New York on points, and Minnesota and Indy have games in hand. But they are in the upper group of five teams, which is a plenty good position heading to the fall. Last year we saw how Ottawa built upon defense and grew into a cohesive playoff team. Edmonton have the pieces to succeed in similar fashion. Actually they’ve been similarly able in past years, but have blown their chances each time. There is a long, long time to go before we get a sense of whether this year’s Eddies are any better, but early signs are promising, they’ve never looked good this early before. Their next match is away at Miami, which could be promising.
#5. Tampa Bay Rowdies – (2-3-2, 9 pts) – Down One
At long last, Tampa are dumped from the #4 spot they’ve held in this ranking since preseason. They haven’t changed a great deal, but while other teams have improved, the Rowdies have remained frustrating. The quality of this team, in paper and in practice should have more than nine points through seven games.
Sunday was a microcosm of the disappointment. The Rowdies went a goal to the good after some beautiful interplay between Kalif Alhassan and Tommy Heinemann on the counter. They had a chance to make it two with another smooth move, but Heinemann inexplicably missed the ball entirely. Moments later, the Cosmos cut apart the Rowdies defense to equalize, and had no problem getting the lead soon after. In the second half, Tampa had a goal ruled offside incorrectly, and saw their last ditch effort cleared off the line in stoppage time.
The attack continues to be a total mess for the Rowdies. Their primary goalscoring threat, Heinemann, is their only goalscoring threat. Tampa need to create more, not just for Teen Wolf, but for other players as well. With just six goals in seven games, the situation is critical for Tampa. They’re already all but eliminated from the spring championship, and may, at the end of the season, rue the points they’re dropping now.
This coming week, the Rowdies travel to Minnesota—another huge test. They were admirable in defeat in New York, but left with nothing. Can they take anything from the Loons, who have been just as dominant at home?
Oh, and are we really 100% sure that Freddy Adu can’t help this team?
#6. Carolina RailHawks – (4-1-3, 13 pts) – Down Three
Since starting the season 4-0-0, the RailHawks have absolutely collapsed. Winless in four, things have gone south in the sudden and dramatic fashion that only Carolina seems capable of pulling off. This is what I get for showing faith in this team for once, huh?
I don’t know what to think (for once) about this team. Their season start wasn’t a mirage, they really did play well against good teams. What’s happened since has been the complete reverse. They can’t beat good teams, they can’t beat bad teams, they can’t beat anyone.
This week, the RaiHawks went to Edmonton, where they gave a decent account of themselves, but ultimately lost 0-1 via penalty kick. In most circumstances, you’d shrug your shoulders and say “that’s soccer,” but when it’s part of a larger skid, every failure to get back on track feels that much more damning. Carolina are still technically in the spring season hunt, but of the five teams with 13 or more points, they are the furthest back, and have only two games left. It would take a colossal implosion for the men in orange to sniff the season title.
Perhaps in the final analysis of the spring, we’ll say that Carolina did well for themselves. They are, after all, still in decent position. But given what could’ve been, settling for anything but the title will be disappointing. And they really need to escape this rut.
#7. Fort Lauderdale Strikers – (2-3-2, 9 pts) – Up Two
The surprising return of the Strikers to becoming a decent soccer team continued this week with a 2-1 win over Rayo OKC, in Yukon. The red and gold were tidy and more dangerous than their hosts. For the third (arguably the fourth) week in a row, they looked convincingly the better side, and they’ve done it on the road as well. The highlight of the match was a beautiful free kick by Ramón Núñez. The play of the week voting ought to be very tight this week, but this might’ve won on most other weeks.
Fort Lauderdale face Ottawa next, in Canada’s capital. After looking awful to start the year, both teams have been much better of late. It will be interesting to see these two teams, and they’ve always played fascinating games in the past.
Oh, and a shoutout to Daniel Radford for sending Caio Zanardi to the stands. Rayo OKC equalized in this match through a penalty kick that was correctly awarded. Zanardi, naturally, threw a massive hissy fit. I’ve written about this before, but I think his behavior is a joke. Perhaps his reputation for embarrassing histrionics has finally spread, because Radford was having none of it. Let’s hope future referees remember the same lesson, or else that Zanardi calms down.
#8. Ottawa Fury – (2-2-3, 8 pts) – No Change
Ottawa beat Jacksonville 1-0 in the waning moments of their encounter on Sunday. It was a match reminiscent of their handiwork for parts of last year. The defense was stout, the offense was hard working but ineffectual, and when a goal needed to come, it came. Marcel De Jong was the man who made it happen, again. The Fury might be last on this ranking without him, he’s played great and scored the equalizer and the winner late in two straight league matches.
Midweek, Ottawa also secured advancement to their first ever Canadian Championship semi-finals, but it wasn’t easy. Although they defeated Edmonton 3-0 in Alberta, they were on the back foot in their home leg, and lost it 0-2. They held their opponents back just enough to advance, but boy it wasn’t pretty. We’ll have to see what the Fury can accomplish against a Vancouver Whitecaps team that looks a bit lost at the moment. But they must be better.
Fort Lauderdale are the Fury’s next opponent and they host once again. As dreadful as their away trip to start the season was, Ottawa have made hay in TD Place, with two wins and a draw in league play. They ought to end the spring behind the pack of leaders, but with something to build on.
#9. Rayo OKC – (2-2-3, 8 pts) – Down Two
For the second week in a row, Rayo got outplayed rather noticeably. It’s not a good look. The Scissortails are being carried by Michel, who takes all the free kicks and has scored a few times from open play. Georgios Samaras has been a bust. Billy Forbes has had moments, but not enough. The defense has been the league’s second worst and Daniel Fernandes isn’t stealing points like he used to (though he had a good game on Saturday).
Rayo aren’t in the same bad bad place as the last two teams on this ranking, but they’re sure not impressing. It still feels weird that they cannot turn their odd home field into something of an advantage. They have lost three of their four matches on the turf in Yukon, and drew the other against a team down to ten men for 60 minutes. Their next match comes against New York away, and they’re probably better off for it. They host Minnesota before traveling to Ottawa to end the spring. These are three difficult match-ups.
Oh, and attendance fell to 3,712, which is still decent by this year’s horrible NASL standards, but the inevitable regression from the first two matches may have begun.
#10. Jacksonville Armada – (1-1-5, 4 pts) – No Change
The highlight of the week for Jacksonville was the absolutely insane reaction that Miguel Gallardo had when Marcel De Jong scored on him. Seriously, go watch the highlights, it’s spectacular.
Other than that, Jacksonville did nothing of note in Ottawa. It has now been four matches and 434 total minutes since the Armada last scored. They have allowed six goals to go unanswered, and lost four straight matches. My preseason prediction that the Armada’s attacking talent would come good looks worse and worse by the day, and Tony Meola’s seat must be the hottest in the league, just seven weeks into his first head coaching job.
Home against Indy next.
#11. Miami FC – (0-3-4, 3 pts) – No Change
On the bye this week. Edmonton next week. Miami are bad, but the bye was welcome. Richie Ryan has had an extra week to work with this roster, and they might actually have time to organize a defense now.
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