It may be best to ignore the standings when judging Saturday’s matchup between the Loons and the Lions. Neither of these clubs is the same team that earned its overall record. For Minnesota United, there may never have been so many positive vibes about a team third from last in the combined table; they severely outplayed but lost to Los Angeles, gave a great showing on the road against Toronto, and played Sporting KC off the pitch in three successive weeks. Orlando City began the year red hot – unsustainably so – and have come back to Earth with two points from their last five games. Sadly for the Lions, they have looked every bit of that poor run of form as well.

Recent form

Minnesota	L	L	W	L	W	-12 GD	0.92 PPG
Orlando	L	D	D	L	L	-3 GD	1.67 PPG

Previous meetings

These two recent expansion teams have never faced each other before. However, plenty of familiarity exists between the clubs. United head coach Adrian Heath led Orlando City from USL into MLS in 2015, and was instrumental in the development of players such as Cyle Larin and Kevin Molino. Molino, along with goalkeeper Patrick McLain, came to United early this year in exchange for a record amount of allocation money. As Heath propped up his coaching staff, he brought back many faces that were alongside him in Orlando, as well. Finally, current Minnesota sideline reporter Jamie Watson joined the NASL version of the Loons after a successful stint with Orlando City, as well. In large part, Saturday’s match will be a reunion for many players and coaches alike.

Officials

Referee	Nima Saghafi
Assistant	Kevin Klinger
Assistant	Felisha Mariscal
Fourth	Juan Guzman

Nima Saghafi helmed the first match between the Loons and the Colorado Rapids this year, a game memorable for being the first MLS point Minnesota captured and for a contentious red card given to Justin Davis in the second half. Saghafi is roughly in the middle of the pack in terms of overall red cards given, PKs awarded, and fouls called, though he is somewhat higher in yellow cards drawn. Finally, readers will note that Felisha Mariscal, one of very few female referees used by the Professional Referees Organization for MLS matches, will be covering ground at TCF, as well.

Roster report

Minnesota United FC
F Abu Danladi (right adductor) – Out
M Rasmus Schüller (left thigh) – Out
M Bernardo Añor (hamstring injury) – Out
D Thomas de Villardi (left Achilles) – Out

Orlando City SC
D Kevin Alston (knee injury) – Out

Tactical outlook

It doesn’t take a glut of fixtures for a game to become a depth test. Minnesota will be able to play something very close to a preferred starting lineup on Saturday, but one injury this weekend will have the club asking some very difficult questions of itself.

First, it may be important for some context if Abu Danladi has fans gnashing their teeth and donning their #PANIC shirts. Danladi’s play has been encouraging in his recent starts, while Johan Venegas had a rough few outings before taking a day away from practice to clear his head a couple of weeks ago. That said, Venegas’ play was just that: a rough few outings that every player naturally goes through. Cyle Larin sent a penalty kick into the 60th row against New York and no one was demanding his head.

When one compares Danladi’s pass chart to Venegas’, hopefully a few white knuckles relax themselves:

 

There are always other factors to consider: Venegas was playing while Minnesota was chasing the game, and was given a different, more central role than Danladi. But the simplest truth to be gleaned is that Danladi played conservatively and found the game less, while Venegas played well enough to feel confident starting against Orlando.

If another of the front four is injured, however, things get murky. Ismaila Jome has not impressed in his substitute minutes this season, and after that there is not a single other attacker or winger on Minnesota’s roster that is not dealing with injury. Collen Warner and Collin Martin can be called upon to support the midfield, but neither appears to be optimal moving forward. A significant formation change – likely to something like a flatter 4-4-2 – and a tactical shift will be required if the club’s depth is tested any further.

The good news for Minnesota is that Orlando presents the team with a prime opportunity to pick up points. After a lightning fast start, Orlando has slowed considerably and is now sitting on only two points from its last five games. Some of those games have been close, while others have been embarrassing.

Lions coach Jason Kreis prefers to play with a 4-4-2 using a diamond midfield. The obvious tip of the diamond and attacking playmaker is Brazilian star Kaká, who has yet to fully regain his form after his injury to open the season but is still good for several great plays each game. Cyle Larin and surprising gem Carlos Rivas head up the attack for Orlando. All three of these players have been productive and valuable in their own ways.

However, the wide players of the diamond have given Orlando fits. Giles Barnes, for example, was expected to be a key piece in supporting the attack this year from out wide; however, he is averaging just over 11 passes per game and now plays about half the time as a starter and half the time as a substitute. One of his wide counterparts, Matías Pérez García, was also expected to carry a heavier load but is only putting in a bit over 20 passes per game. Part of this is due to some interruption in tactical cohesion during the Kaká injury, but that was also when Orlando was playing its best overall soccer.

The rotating cast of characters in Orlando’s midfield means that United has the opportunity to win those midfield battles and play the game on its own terms, especially at home. If Ibson keeps playing out of his mind all over the pitch and Kevin Molino and Venegas put in competent starts, Minnesota will be able to play fluid tactically.

How will it play out?

True diamond midfields have an inherent disadvantage in their shape. If the wide players of the diamond play very wide, it leaves a lot of space in the central midfield. If they play narrowly, it leaves quite a bit of room on the wings. Minnesota can play this to their advantage. If Orlando is leaving this space in the center of the pitch, bring the Loons’ wingers more centrally to create overload situations to win and carry possession, while the fullbacks provide width on the overlap. If Orlando plays centrally or tends to overload the side of the pitch with the ball, then great wing buildup and heads-up switching of the play is all it takes to exploit the opposition. It’s all chess, and this is hardly grandmaster strategy, either.

Orlando will win if…

For the Minnesotan optimism shown above, Orlando still has Larin and Kaká. If they are playing to their abilities, they can score quickly and against the grain. If they finish those chances, Orlando is in every game it plays.

Minnesota will win if…

Despite last week’s loss, Minnesota dominated play and head coach Adrian Heath allowed his wingers to roam a bit more. This fluidity is key to Minnesota’s attack. At home against a team reeling, United needs only to take advantage of the space Orlando will naturally give them, and roaming wingers can help them do that.

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