Minnesota United FC travel to league newcomers Rayo OKC this weekend in the Loons’ final road match of the Spring Season. It’s a must-win affair for Carl Craig if there is to be any hope of salvaging a Spring Season championship after two straight disappointing league defeats.

Rayo has struggled this season, sitting eighth on the table at 2-2-4 with eight points, just ahead of Ottawa on goal differential. Making matters worse for the struggling team, OKC will be missing four starters due to suspension. Georgios Samaras, Billy Forbes, and Michel were all ejected last week (Forbes and Michel on straight reds, Samaras for a second yellow card). Boateng is suspended due to accumulating five yellow cards on the Spring Season; he is the only player in the league to have reached five thus far (Nikola Ledgerwood of FC Edmonton and Juan Guerra of Tampa Bay each have four).

The Loons, meanwhile, are coming off a win over USL side St. Louis FC in their midweek Open Cup tie. Assistant Coach Ian Fuller described that win as a “huge relief” for the players who were frustrated by the last two matches. United has suffered two consecutive league defeats, a 4-2 loss in Indianapolis and a 2-0 loss at home to the Tampa Bay Rowdies. They sit four points behind the league-leading Cosmos with a game in hand. United is also behind Indianapolis and FC Edmonton– both have 14 points, with United having a game in hand over Edmonton as well.

Previous Meetings

This is the first meeting between Minnesota and Rayo OKC. That said, with OKC struggling and missing four starters this is a match United should be winning, and it shouldn’t be especially close.

Officials

Rosendo Mendoza takes the whistle for this match, assisted by Andrew Bigelow and Kyle Atkins. Wade Beall takes fourth official duties. Mendoza and Beall have no statistics listed on PRO’s website (neither appear on the website at all). This is both Atkins’ and Bigelow’s first match of the season, according to PRO’s website.

Roster Report

As mentioned above, Rayo will be without four starters in Michel, Boateng, Samaras, and Forbes all due to suspension.

Minnesota United FC is missing Greg Jordan and Jeb Brovsky who are both recovering from injuries. Aaron Perez will not travel with the team either. Ben Speas, who has been missing since leaving a match on May 14, is available for selection.

Statistical Notes

Rayo and United are similar teams in terms of defending. Rayo has faced 10 more shots on target, but only conceded one more goal than the Loons. They win roughly the same percentage of their tackles and duels, with Rayo having a very slight edge in both categories.

On the other hand, United has allowed goals in bunches, while Rayo has conceded them more spread out; the Loons have twice the clean sheets (four) that OKC has earned (two).

Some good news for the Loons: Rayo tends to attack on the ground rather than through the air. Rayo has only attempted 77 crosses this season, and only 13 of those have been successful. This is essentially the same success rate as Minnesota. The ground play should favor United, though Rayo has completed 80% of attempted passes to United’s 75%.

On the other hand, with 6’6″ striker Ian Svantesson likely starting, perhaps we will see more balls whipped into the box looking for the big man’s head.

United has the attacking edge, creating more shots both on and off target as well as more goals. There continues to be some question of whether the Loons can keep their conversion rate up; 17% is rather high and an indication that perhaps the Loons have had luck on their side.

United’s last two outings have been very underwhelming. The Loons’ play will need to improve, even with Rayo missing nearly half their starting outfielders.

Rayo: Last Time Out

Rayo lost 2-1 to Oklahoma City Energy FC midweek in the Open Cup. Prior to that, OKC fell 1-0 to the Cosmos. In both matches, Alen Marcina deployed his men in a 4-3-3 featuring Boateng in the central midfield and Samaras up top. Obviously they (along with Michel and Forbes) will need replacing.

The left side of Marcina’s attack is particularly decimated; the left center mid, left forward, striker, and holding mid all need a replacement. It’s likely we’ll see Sebastian Velasquez slot into Menjivar’s spot in the midfield, while Menjivar moves up top to play as the tip of the spear. Ryan Johnson is another option to take Samaras’ place, allowing Menjivar to stay in the midfield.

We may see Pecka come into the midfield, though he last started in that same right central midfield spot. Robbie Findley should replace Forbes on the left wing, though Martin Chavez played there early in Rayo’s season.

Minnesota: Last Time Out

Craig will have Speas available again, so it’s likely we’ll see him slot back into the No. 10 role, which will push Pinho out to the wings if he starts. Añor or Laing seem the likely starters on the left wing, with either Pinho or Cruz looking likely for the right side. Ramirez will probably start as striker.

The midfield is a bit more of a question mark. Jack Blake could start again after an impressive debut at midweek. Juliano Vicentini likely will also feature in the midfield. Defensively, we’ll likely see Davis, Venegas, and Lowe. Whether Calvano will continue to feature in centerback as he did on Wednesday over Kallman remains to be seen.

The wildcard in the mix is Ibson; the Brazilian has impressed as he’s been given the freedom to play an attacking role. It’s possible Ibson will get the nod as the 10 with Speas coming on as a sub. Or perhaps Ibson will start in the midfield, giving Jack Blake a rest after his game on Wednesday.

The Matchup

Rayo OKC is not successful at crossing the ball. They attempted a large number of crosses against Oklahoma City Energy, but completed very few. The vast majority of those they did connect on were from set plays. A key for United will be not giving away set pieces near their goal, including corners.

OKC’s last goal came from a key pass into the area to Forbes, who slotted it home. Rayo likes to keep the ball on the ground and send passes into the area to their forwards running behind; cutting these passes out and playing the offside trap should be a way for United to counteract this.

Simply due to suspensions, United may try to take advantage of Rayo’s left flank; the only starter on that side will be the left back Van Schaik. Look for Venegas to charge forward and send balls into the area, or cut inside and have a go on goal himself.

Again: this is a match United should win. Rayo has struggled and is rather threadbare due to suspensions. OKC will also need to be careful; Marcina’s team has seen five red cards in the past two matches. This includes two players– Michel and Samaras– who will miss an additional match after Saturday. Add the fact that a loss or draw for United will likely mathematically eliminate them from the Spring Championship, and United has all the reason it needs to attack a weakened and possibly gun-shy squad.

Kickoff is at 8 PM CDT, with viewing available on ESPN 3, or channel 29 locally. The watch parties will be at the Nomad World Pub and NorthGate Brewing.