Well folks, we’ve got a race after all.
Here’s the situation for the top spots. Indy won the spring, and are locked into the first or the second seed. The Eleven are four points behind New York in the combined table and the fall standings. Edmonton are six points behind New York in the combined, and five points behind in the fall, with a game in hand on both the Cosmos and Eleven. Miami are six points behind in the fall with a game in hand.
For the final playoff spot, Minnesota lead the pack with 36 points. However, Tampa are just a point and three goals behind, with a game in hand. Carolina also have a game in hand, but are three points and fourteen goals back. Miami are now four points and five goals back, with a game in hand.
What’s craziest about these final weeks is that they’ve shown a tremendous amount of parity. The Cosmos picked up the eight points in the last five games. Indy picked up seven after coming out of a bad stretch of away games. But Edmonton earned just three points and Minnesota earned just four. Meanwhile, their challengers closed the gap quickly. Tampa have earned eleven points in the past five, Carolina added seven, and Miami picked up nine. That’s why things have gotten so close. As Edmonton (and especially Minnesota stumble), there’s increased heat from below.
At this point, think the Eddies have just barely enough points to be confident in a playoff spot, and it seems silly to think they will lose out. But the Loons certainly have a fight on their hands, with the Rowdies remarkably in the next closest position.
#1. New York Cosmos – (15-4-7, 49 pts) – No Change
New York haven’t been badly beaten too often this year, but it can still happen, as the Indy Eleven proved on Saturday night. The Cosmos still have strong leads atop the standings, and this was the toughest game remaining on their schedule. Still, this week’s result highlights some ongoing issues.
For one, the Cosmos remain a poor road team. It hasn’t been easy for anyone away from home this year in the NASL, but Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Edmonton, OKC, and Tampa all have better records away from home than the Cosmos do. Saturday’s result highlights the incredible importance of New York winning the #1 seed and avoiding travel. Given how lopsided home results have been this year, it seems safe to say that whoever wins the top seed will be the overwhelming favorite for the championship. New York are in the drivers seat now, but if they somehow lose out to Indy, Edmonton, or even Miami, then they’ll be favorites to lose in the first round instead.
New York travel to the inconsistent RailHawks next, for a midweek match-up. You never know, given how the game is on the road, what the result will be, and a loss could extend this intrigue a bit longer. They host the Strikers next Sunday.
#2. Indy Eleven – (12-9-5, 45 pts) – Up One
The Eleven are back! A few weeks after poor road form led to questions about an end-of-season slump, Indy have put to rest these questions with a decisive win against New York at IUPUI. Only the Cosmos have been better at their home than Indy have in theirs.
It serves to highlight, once again, the importance of home field advantage in the playoffs. Right now, the Eleven are within striking distance of the #1 seed, but they’ll need some excellent performances of their own on the road, and some poor showings by New York to pull it off. As things stand right now, Indy look very likely to be the championship runners up. They’ll take heart from this week’s demolishing of the Cosmos, but just a few weeks ago in Hempstead, it was the other way around.
A big match away in Edmonton is looming.
#3. FC Edmonton – (12-7-6, 43 pts) – Down One
Edmonton have fallen badly off the pace, not too long after having the #1 seed in their control. They’re winless in six, and they haven’t really played too many good teams in that stretch. From the top of the league to third place, expectations for this Edmonton team have gone from a possible championship to an odds-on semifinal exit. Sure, the Eddies might’ve taken that result if you were to offer it to them at the start of the season, but it doesn’t look so good now.
This past Saturday’s defeat in Carolina was really a poor showing. The always inconsistent goalscoring has turned off completely for Edmonton, and they managed to concede after a loose ball in the box fell to Austin Da Luz. This is a team that will almost always be in contention for every game, because they allow so few goals. So nobody will enjoy playing them in the postseason because it’ll be close. That being said, if they can’t find a way to start nicking goals again, they won’t go anywhere. Four games without a goal is not good enough at all.
The Eddies host Indy this weekend, where the worst result for both teams would be to draw. A draw helps neither attack New York, while a win for one or the other would give them the chance of catching the Cosmos.
#4. Tampa Bay Rowdies – (9-8-8, 35 pts) – Up Two
At long last the Rowdies seem to be achieving some measure of their potential. Two wins for the green and gold in two matches, unbeaten in five. This weekend was the critical test, away in Fort Lauderdale. The Strikers have inexplicably beaten a lot of teams this year, but Tampa replied with four goals after going down early, and made no mistake about it. Their solid away win gives the Rowdies control of their own destiny for the league’s final playoff position. They trail Minnesota by a point, but have a game in hand.
Tampa have been decent on the road this year, and not quite lethal at home. Still, with seven games left, four of which are at home, everything is set up well for the Rowdies to seize the moment. Among those games is a home match against the Loons, which could prove decisive. That is to come in the middle of next week, however. The most immediate concern is a home match against Miami, the league’s best away side. If the Rowdies can clear that hurdle, then they’ll be well and truly on their way.
#5. Miami FC – (8-8-9, 32 pts) – No Change
Miami have lost twice in a row, and this week they somehow managed to drop all points against Puerto Rico. That’s fairly stunning, but they hold their position because at least they’ve shown some relative consistency in their play. They created quality chances against their guests, and they only lost from a single unlucky own goal by Pablo Campos. The week before, they were defeated by Indy in Indy. I can accept these results.
The bad news for the teal and tangerine is that while they might keep their place on this ranking, they’re not making enough headway on the overall rankings. Now four points back of Minnesota and three points back of Tampa, with a goal differential deficit against both, things are looking tricky for Miami’s surprising playoff hopes. Their chances of winning the fall season may have also taken a fatal blow this week. And their home-favored schedule doesn’t help Miami like it does with other teams, as demonstrated this past week. Miami’s home and away records are essentially identical. They play equally well, wherever they are.
Miami have two games this week. They play midweek at home against Ottawa, and then face off against the Rowdies in Tampa Bay on the weekend, in a match that is absolutely critical for both teams.
#6. Minnesota United FC – (10-6-10, 36 pts) – Down Two
Calamitous. That’s the only way to describe Minnesota’s collapse on the road against Ottawa, when a 1-0 lead became a 1-3 defeat in the second half. The Loons have now lost three in a row, and are now at the mercy of others to decide their playoff fate.
How bad were those three loses? The first, against the Cosmos, we can excuse. The next two, both against Ottawa, we can only soften by suggesting that perhaps Minnesota just doesn’t match up well against the Fury. But it’s bad. Really bad. It also reinforces one of the lessons of the fall season, which is that there’s nothing fluky about Minnesota’s results. They’ve looked good at times, but they’ve also looked mediocre, and sometimes plain bad. The Loons have more losses than wins in the fall season. Their fall goal differential is just +1. Even if they get into the playoffs, it’s not looking like this team will scare anyone.
Saturday’s home match against Jacksonville, is the best possible match that United could have right now. But given how they’ve played, it’s also much less of a sure thing than normal.
#7. Ottawa Fury – (7-8-11, 29 pts) – Up One
Ottawa have either found their groove, or their favorite opponent. In two matches home and away against Minnesota, the Fury were unquestionably the better side. It was the best they’ve looked all year and the first time in a while where they’ve seemed able to execute the vision and style that Paul Dalglish has tried to implement. They’re unbeaten in seven now, although the first five of those results were draws.
Can they keep doing it? It almost certainly doesn’t matter, because they’re too far out of the playoff picture. But Minnesota certainly hope their losses to the Fury have sparked something, because Ottawa are off to play one of the other playoff contenders next. The Fury travel to Miami for a midweek match. Hey, if you keep winning, anything is possible, I guess.
#8. Carolina RailHawks – (9-6-10, 33 pts) – Up One
Classic Carolina. Just when they’re in decent position to actually do something allow me to forget about them forever, they lose two games in a week and all but rule themselves out of win a game against a good team and get a foot back in the race. The only departure from their classic form is that they lost won both the games 0-1 1-0, displaying surprising skill in defense. Normally, you can count on the RailHawks for back to back 0-3 blowouts crazy 4-1 wins, or something like that.
(Actually four of Carolina’s last five games ended 1-0, or 0-1, and the other was 0-0, now that I look)
Carolina host Edmonton the Cosmos this coming week, so if they were going to make some kind of miracle recovery, they better get started right about now.
#9. Fort Lauderdale Strikers – (8-8-9, 32 pts) – Down Two
Fort Lauderdale got smashed by Tampa Bay on Saturday, and about time. I can’t understand how this team is still standing, because even when they get a result, they usually don’t look good while doing it. And then there’s this:
@lcuccat1 announces on the show that Pascal Millien and Junior Sandoval will be signed for $1 each to play for the @FTLStrikers
— The Tailgate Show (@TheTailgateShow) September 23, 2016
This is sad on multiple levels. But it’s also conduct not befitting of a professional sports team. It’s great if someone wants to play for you for free, whatever their motivations, then that’s great, but you owe it to this person to pay them a fair wage for their work. That’s what professional organizations do. If Millien or Sandoval get injured on the job, will the Strikers pay their medical bills? If the experience of Joe Nasco was any indication, the players cannot count on the team for this. In other words, two players who were not earning much money with other clubs, are now putting their careers at risk for free, and the Fort Lauderdale Strikers have agreed to accept this. More than any rumors of clubs closing, this is the most embarrassing thing to happen in the NASL this year.
Fort Lauderdale visit Puerto Rico midweek, and New York next Sunday.
#10. Rayo OKC – (7-10-9, 31 pts) – No Change
Oklahoma City traveled to Jacksonville this week, for a match which they drew 1-1, and the highlights are not currently up anywhere that I know of. Normally, I’d watch the match on ESPN3 anyway, but this one was on BeIN Sports Es, and I have no idea where to find any record of this match occurring.
And honestly, I didn’t look too hard. Both of these teams aren’t very good. Neither are likely to figure in the playoffs. Oklahoma City probably won’t even exist. They host Carolina on Saturday, the third to last match of this failed experiment.
#11. Puerto Rico FC – (2-8-6, 14 pts) – Up One
Puerto Rico won this past weekend, against Miami, in Miami, and kept a clean sheet. I mean, this is coming from the team that made the Jacksonville Armada attack look like a threat. Trevor Spangenberg had a good game in goal, but it’s not like he really had to make any special saves. Puerto Rico just played well, how about that?
Meanwhile, back on the island, there was an unprecedented three day blackout, so those Puerto Rico FC fans who might’ve seen their club win just its second match may not have had the privilege. Obviously they probably had other, more serious concerns at that moment.
Puerto Rico play Fort Lauderdale at home next, and hopefully they can extend a four game unbeaten streak and reward their fans with a pick-me-up win.
#12. Jacksonville Armada – (3-10-12, 19 pts) – Down One
See above for comments on the Jacksonville-Rayo game, one of the few NASL games this year that I haven’t watched at all. If anyone has a link to highlights, let me know. The Armada are mercifully nearing the end of another awful year. Imagine seeing two of your better players picked up by another bad team for $1 each.
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