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  • What’s a Goal Worth in MLS?

    Jeff Rueter

    November 14, 2016
    The Angle
    What’s a Goal Worth in MLS?

    With Christian Ramirez’s future still in the balance, a debate has ensued over just how you value a striker in MLS who is a proven goal-scorer in another league.

    After leading the NASL in goals over the past three seasons, Ramirez is still unsigned by Minnesota United as they go into MLS in 2017. The consensus response across Twitter and the article’s comment section was a three-word refrain: “Pay the man.”

    That’s just about where the consensus ended. Some people thought that there was too much risk in signing a soon-to-be 26 year-old striker without MLS experience and valued him at $100,000. Others thought his importance to the club’s NASL years, his upside, and his goal-scoring record deserved a near-DP deal around $400,000. Generally, every person’s estimate fell in this range, which then begs the question (to paraphrase Kendrick Lamar):

    How much a goal cost?

    It’s one thing to estimate a player’s worth when you have to factor in a wide range of on-field contributions. For defenders, there aren’t as many defining stats to give a simple formula to their worth. Midfielders are almost harder to valuate, with their roles ranging from defensive enforcers to creative playmakers. Conveniently, the usual striker has one simple objective: scoring goals. With this in mind, we can get a rough estimate of Ramirez’s worth next year by figuring out what a goal is worth in MLS.

    I took a look at every player in MLS that scored more than five goals in 2016. From there, I made a spreadsheet to keep track of a few stats: goals, guaranteed compensation, and dollars per goal. They’re very simple to track, but it helps to give a sense for the value of a goal. (Yes, I realize that a player’s salary factors in many factors on the field and off; for the sake of argument, it’s easier to just look at a paycheck purely from on-field goal tallies.)

    Inside the Numbers

    In total, 72 MLS players scored five or more goals in 2016, with a grand total of 612 goals scored among these players. The salaries of these 72 players added up to $70,837,577, resulting in a price per goal among the 72 players of $115,747.67. That’s a notable figure.

    However, this figure factors in the 30 midfielders and 1 defender (big ups, Justin Morrow) who scored 5 or more goals. Removing these players, including Kaká, Mauro Diaz, and Frank Lampard, leaves 41 forwards with 5 or more goals. These players had an average dollars/goal figure of $110,725.62. That isn’t a major difference from the first number, only slicing off around $5,000 per tally.

    Of course, this figure still is influenced by the 17 Designated Players at the forward position. Removing these gives a much better estimate for Ramirez, who likely won’t command a $5,000,000-plus salary like David Villa, Clint Dempsey, and Sebastian Giovinco. That leaves us with a 24-player group to look at.

    mls-goals

     

    Finally, we’ve narrowed it down to non-DP forwards in the league, the type of player Ramirez would likely be if he signed with United for 2017 and beyond. This is a wide array of players, with players on rookie contracts (Morris, Larin, Mullins), players transferred in from other leagues (Mendoza, Barnes, Baptista), and league veterans on their second or third contracts (Oduro, Magee, Wondolowski). Looking at these 24 attackers, a goal scored by a non-DP forward was worth $37,566.72 in 2016.

    A Real-Life Word Problem

    Remember when you wondered when you’d ever use algebra after high school? Get your cocktail napkins ready, because it’s time for some equations. Stick with us.

    Using that $37,566.72 figure as the value of a single goal in MLS, you can start to get a sense of what Ramirez’s (or any potential striker’s) worth could be for Minnesota United. The fans estimating his worth to be $100,000 are implying that he’s “only” worth three goals at an MLS level. Even if there’s a performance difference from NASL to MLS that Ramirez would need to conquer, 3 goals seems like a majorly conservative estimate of his output against MLS competition.

    For my money, I think a solid over/under to set for Ramirez would be 7.5 goals. This still feels a bit low, but that would account for a potential learning curve, competition keeping him from being an every day starter, and still give room for his first contract to be a value deal.

    If that’s the estimated output, you can put his salary value at $281,750.

    ****

    Does 7.5 goals seem like a fair estimate to base a contract off of? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.

    Christian Ramirez, Goals, Minnesota United FC, MLS, Salary, Statistics
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    14 responses to “What’s a Goal Worth in MLS?”

    1. Clint Avatar
      Clint
      November 14, 2016

      Very cool analysis Jeff. I think you hit Christian’s value close to on the head. I would project something like 8-10 goals out of him assuming health and that he’s the “main” guy up top. Naturally, midfield support is key 🙂 It seems to make so much sense for him to be locked up at around $300k. It feels like good value if you compare him to others on that non-DP list you posted.

      Reply
      1. Jeff Rueter Avatar
        Jeff Rueter
        November 14, 2016

        Appreciate that, Clint. For every Cyle Larin on that list, there’s a Giles Barnes (over $120k per goal!). It certainly seems fair to get him around that $300k range, but like you said – plenty of factors to consider.

        Reply
      2. Doug Foss Avatar
        Doug Foss
        November 14, 2016

        So how many games do you believe he will start?

        Reply
        1. Jeff Rueter Avatar
          Jeff Rueter
          November 14, 2016

          Me personally? I’m starting him for 30 right away. That assumes I draft Ebobisse first overall and play some variation of a 4-4-2 formation. If United doesn’t see him as an everyday player, it changes the salary. Fewer games, fewer goals, fewer green.

          Reply
          1. Doug Foss Avatar
            Doug Foss
            November 14, 2016

            I am fine with what you have planned here. IMO, Ebobisse will be a MLS star one day and we should draft him. I just hate over paying somebody who may or may not start 30 games a year.

            Reply
            1. Jeff Rueter Avatar
              Jeff Rueter
              November 14, 2016

              Certainly. You look at guys on that list like McInerney and Barnes and it’s clear that they’re overpaid. It’s tough to gauge who will score goals any given year, though.

          2. Kate Sophia Avatar
            Kate Sophia
            November 16, 2016

            I’m having a hard time imagining him starting at all. It might be a broken imagination, but that’s where this all falls apart for me.

            Reply
    2. Dave Laidig Avatar
      Dave Laidig
      November 14, 2016

      I like the idea of putting brackets on an estimate of value, even if some assumptions need to be made. But as the marketplace is MLS forwards, I imagine contract discussion revolve around where CR should fit into that pool. (e.g., better than Jozy? Better than Gordon?). I don’t trust MLS contract discussions to be very efficient in purchasing results.

      Reply
    3. Alex Schieferdecker Avatar
      Alex Schieferdecker
      November 14, 2016

      I think the one thing this definitely proves is that MLS teams are paying some really bad strikers!

      Reply
    4. Chris RB Avatar
      Chris RB
      November 14, 2016

      Great method, and I love that you also controlled (in a sense) for some of the very highly paid guys in the league- Gio, Villa, etc.

      I definitely think 6-7 goals is a safe estimate, and more than that is likely.

      Also: something that wasn’t included- and you explained why- Ramirez does a good job of assisting goals as well as knocking them in himself. So if there is a CAM/second striker on the field, Christian can help create more goals that way that won’t be included in this tally.

      To sum up: PAY THE MAN.

      Reply
    5. Russ Snee Avatar
      Russ Snee
      November 14, 2016

      Really like the analysis done mathematically, but at the end of the day, MNUFC is a business and they are going to try to get the best deal they can (i.e. pay him as little as they can). For Christian, it is about taking the best deal he thinks he can get. If he turns down a deal with MNUFC for less than he thinks he is worth, how sure is he that he can get paid more someplace else? Will he ever get another shot at an top flight team (MLS or elsewhere)?

      Reply
    6. BJ Avatar
      BJ
      November 14, 2016

      In negotiations the formula used can often be at the heart of the matter. I don’t know how MLS contracts are written, but guarantee money vs bonus money would seem to have some input here. If the 2 sides are far apart on guarantee, maybe a bonus structure makes sense.

      But I have a problem with the formula, you only account for attacking players with 5 goals. Plenty of attacking players with less than that, right? So what about the strikers signed that have 5 or less goals. This really does show the cream of the crop, correct?

      So the formula used can often be at the heart of the matter.

      956 goals scored in 340 games, 20 teams. Roughly $70 Million in total MLS salary (minus DP salary – Cap of 3.49 million * 20 teams). You get $73,221 per goal that MLS paid. Salary of $512,547 (for expected 7 goals).

      But only about ~40% of players are attacking – variations on 442 diamond is popular (GK, 4 Defense, 1 DM – 3 AM 2 F). So if the attacking players account for ~40% of payroll and then MLS is paying about $29,288 per goal. Salary of $205,020 (for expected 7 goals).

      Not saying my or the articles formula are good or bad, just as with many things it all depends on what numbers you use.

      Reply
    7. Doug Foss Avatar
      Doug Foss
      November 14, 2016

      Any reason why you guys deleted my post?

      Reply
      1. Wes Avatar
        Wes
        November 15, 2016

        I am not sure if anyone did. Every once and a while something gets moved into a weird spam limbo. Sorry if it got lost.

        Reply

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