When the Copa America Centenario kicks off tonight, the US Men’s National Team are once again an underdog going into group play. This may be in part due to an inferiority complex surrounding soccer in America. However, it’s hard to argue against the fact that the past two years since the 2014 World Cup have been rocky at best for the USMNT.
Players have entered and exited the national pool at an alarming rate. Even those who have been regulars for the country have been thrown into positions which they have no background (most notably: Michael Bradley as a 10, Jermaine Jones as a centerback, almost anybody at leftback). The goalkeeper position (a true strength for the USA since 1990) has been in flux as Tim Howard nears retirement, Brad Guzan has struggled to find form with now-relegated Aston Villa, and the pre-anointed successor, Bill Hamid, has been out since January with a major knee injury before coming back this past Friday.
By now, you know the recent results. A fourth-place showing at the 2015 Gold Cup. Missing the Olympics for the third time in four cycles. Losing at Guatemala in World Cup Qualifying. With two games to go, America is just one point ahead of Guatemala for a spot in the Hexagonal.
And yet, it’s entirely feasible that the USMNT could make the final in this year’s Copa America Centenario. Against traditional logic, a second place finish in Group A could set the Nats up for a run to the final.
Group Stage
Let’s make one thing clear: this is not a Group of Death. While the US didn’t get drawn into a simple group, this is a far cry from the difficulty of the 2014 World Cup quartet. In recent months, Colombia has not lived up to their Golden Generation potential. They failed to advance past the first knockout round in last year’s Copa (though getting to penalty kicks against Argentina isn’t a shameful way to go out of a tournament), but are 2-0 in CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying so far. However, only five of their 23 man roster have made even 40 national team caps, and much of the scoring pressure will fall onto the shoulders of 2014 World Cup Golden Boot winner James Rodríguez.
The Yanks’ next match comes against CONCACAF rival Costa Rica, who have been in a slide of their own since the World Cup. The nation won’t be messing around and will employ a veteran-based roster, highlighted by Real Madrid goalkeeper Keylor Navas (although, he might be out for the tournament due to chronic foot issues; his backup is out for the Copa already), Arsenal winger Joel Campbell, and five MLS players (defenders Kendall Waston and Rónald Matarrita, midfielders Christian Bolaños and Johan Venegas, and striker Álvaro Saborio). However, the US is unbeaten in 15 consecutive competitive games against Los Ticos (12-0-3). The final matchup, Paraguay, hasn’t been a continental power for almost a decade. It’s unwise to underestimate any opponent in a major tournament, but the country figures to be fourth in the pecking order for Group A.
SPI projections to advance, Copa América Centenario Group A: pic.twitter.com/TyJol2C43o
— Paul Carr (@PaulCarr) February 22, 2016
I tend to agree with Paul Carr & SPI’s projections. Colombia is coming off of a 3-1 against Haiti where they didn’t take the lead until Haitian Max Hilaire got a red card towards the end of the first half. The lineup was close to full-strength, though James wasn’t in the fray due to UEFA Champions League play. A draw against Colombia would do wonders for the Yanks, who should be able to get four points out of Costa Rica and Paraguay. Five points would surely allow America to advance, likely below Colombia on goal differential or points.
Knockout Stage
Here’s where finishing in second place would become incidentally advantageous.
The idea of whether or not the USMNT could make the finals on home soil hinges on two factors. First, the US would need to finish in second in their group for their best chance. Group A’s victor faces off against the runner-up in Group B. Group B features Brazil, Ecuador, Haiti, and Peru. There’s a clear split between the first two teams and the second two, and it should be self-explanatory that Brazil would be the best side of the four.
Second, it would take an understandably lackluster performance from Brazil due to some major player absences. Most notably, FC Barcelona forward Neymar was left off of the roster by his own request due to his involvement in the nation’s hosted Olympics later in the summer. Fellow regulars David Luiz, Danilo, Roberto Firmino, Kaka, and Oscar are also missing out on the tournament, leaving some major absences both in attack and defense. Yes, Brazil is still a very dangerous foe. However, these glaring absences (as well as a fairly new regular goalkeeper in Internacional’s Alisson Becker, 23) make Brazil surprisingly vulnerable. Assuming America continues it’s form during the tournament run-up friendlies and relies on the midfield power given by Bradley, a rejuvenated Jones, Alejandro Bedoya, Kyle Beckerman, and Darlington Nagbe, this could be a potential victory.
Winning Group A would mean that the USA would face likely Group B runner-up Ecuador (who America beat on May 25 by a score of 1-0). That said, a win against the Group B would lead the US to a matchup with Group C’s likely champion Argentina. Argentina is a far tougher foe than any other in this tournament and is currently the highest ranked team in the world. The back line has looked rock solid as of late, with John Brooks and Geoff Cameron forming a stable partnership in the center and Fabian Johnson and DeAndre Yedlin providing attacking spark at the fullback slots. However, they’d be no match for an Argentinian attack led by Lionel Messi, Gonzalo Higuain, Sergio Aguero, and company.
Reality Settles In
Most likely, Jurgen Klinsmann‘s men will advance out of the group. From there, it’s entirely possible that they’d be eliminated in the first knockout game against the likes of Brazil. However, the team has been trending up in 2016 (having gone 6-1-0 in their seven matches) and it looks like there’s finally continuity in the lineup. This is the most talented squad America has fielded in since possibly 2002, and there’s reason for (cautious) optimism with this team.
First of all–that might be the best backline I’ve ever seen in the Klinsmann era. I agree with the popular opinion that Fabian Johnson‘s best role with the national team is as a left wing, but there’s no readily apparent solution for the nation’s long-time hole at left back. That said, he might be the best of what’s around, and even Johnson out of position is a better solution than, say, Matt Besler on the left side. However, John Brooks had his best year yet at Hertha Berlin, and Geoff Cameron was a valuable part of Stoke City’s defense this year. Meanwhile, DeAndre Yedlin‘s stock has risen as much as any American’s has, as his loan stint at Sunderland provided him with regular Premier League minutes. His attacking runs and pace were always plus-attributes; now that his defense has become much more stable, he should be a regular at the right back spot for a decade.
As alluded to earlier, the midfield is as steady as ever, with Nagbe subbing in for Bedoya as needed. (Sidenote: if it were me, I’d start Nagbe over Bedoya. The creativity that Nagbe brings is unparalleled in recent USMNT history.) Up top, Bobby Wood is coming off of a career year in which he finished third in Bundesliga 2 in goals (17, setting a record for an American in Germany) and just inked a deal with Hamburger SV. Clint Dempsey hasn’t found his goal-scoring form in Seattle but is still the most consistent threat up top for the United States. Gyasi Zardes has settled into his right wing role. As you’ve heard by now, 17 year-old wunderkind Christian Pulisic is as good as advertised and should be a threat from the get-go in this tournament.
(Image credit to www.memedeportes.com)
All eleven starters above have experience in Europe’s top four leagues–something that’s unheard of with the USMNT pool. With the depth and ability that this team has, it’s not unreasonable that they could make a run in the tournament. It’ll take some results falling in their favor outside of their group and some steady management by Klinsmann, but it’s reasonable to expect a quarterfinal or semifinal appearance from the United States.
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